Week of 7/4: Middle School Decline

This week we look at the nationwide decline in middle school enrollment that occurred during 2021/22, one district's test-score turnaround, an example of one state's shift in Covid 19 mitigation, and some enrollment projections for 2022/23. More below.


This is Dennis from Burbio and below is our weekly update.  Feel free to share.
 
This week we look at the nationwide decline in middle school enrollment that occurred during 2021/22, one district's test-score turnaround, an example of one state's shift in Covid 19 mitigation, and some enrollment projections for 2022/23.  More below. 
 
Burbio's database of 5,000+ ESSER III plans currently covers 74% of K-12 students and over $83 billion of allocations and will grow to 6,000 plans over the summer.  Click here  to receive sample data. 
 
 
  
1.  In previous blog posts we profiled national and state-by-state trends in Pre-K and Kindergarten, ninth grade, and twelfth grade.   Nationally, middle school (grades 6-8) shows a 2.2% decline for 2021/22 versus 2020/21.  In the state-by-state analysis below, we are able to cover enrollment comparisons among districts making up 90% of US K-12 of U.S. students, as some districts in state-level reporting are difficult to match up with NCES figures and aren't included.  Of the 46 states in our dataset, Nebraska was the only state to show an increase in middle school enrollment this past year:
6th-8th Grade

2.  Burbio is compiling and organizing K-12 school budget details nationwide for business intelligence use by suppliers and stakeholders. This week we show some examples of districts' enrollment projections in their annual budgets, and next week we will be highlighting the detailed capital expenditure plans we are discovering.  First, below is the standard format for New Jersey, in this case from Newark Board of Education, which is projecting enrollment to be flat next year:

Newark Enrollment-1
Some districts provide school-by-school enrollment projections.  Below is Portland, ME, which is projecting slight increases in elementary schools, slight declines in middle and high school, and a one percent drop overall:  
Portland ME Enrollment

Park City School District, UT, is showing a projected 2.2% decline in this breakdown:

Park City Enrollment

Other formats include Cambridge Public Schools, MA (page 39 in the document) which assigns students to elementary and middle school using a "controlled choice" formula and details projected flat enrollment for next year.   In New York, Wappingers Central School District (page 99) uses the standard state form to project an aggregate enrollment decline of 2.5% for next year. Fairbanks North Star Borough District, AK  (page 390) breaks down enrollment for over thirty schools, projecting an enrollment of 12,191 students versus a reported 12,347 this past year.   Norwalk Public Schools, CT (page 8) projects a 0.7% overall decline in their by-school projections, with high school increasing slightly and elementary and middle school dropping. 

 

3.  In news from around the country: 

  • Weymouth Public Schools, MA reports a dramatic jump in math and literacy scores in elementary schools.  “In September our educators learned that due to the pandemic many of their students were up to two grade levels behind,” reports the Superintendent.  “In one school year, just ten months, our elementary educators, administrators, coaches, data teams, district administrators and our students put in some serious work and brought our overall elementary literacy up two grade levels, and in some cases more."   The district reports testing students three times a year. 
  • The percentage of Top 500 districts with mask mandates finished the year hovering in the two percent range.  Many districts continue to use CDC guidelines on community spread level to determine mitigation approaches.  In this example, Waukegan CUSD 60, IL moves to a mask mandate due to  Lake County entering the high level. "The mask requirement impacts staff and visitors during the summer, as well as students enrolled in summer school," states the announcement.  Conversely, the Superintendent for Orange Township Public Schools, NJ removed the mask mandate as of July 5th, writing, "If there is an uptick in cases within the school district, I will reserve the option to return to mandatory masks for an unspecified period."
  • In the pop-up on the home page for Charlevoix Public Schools, MI they declare they are "now accepting bids for the 2022-2023 building trades home.  The minimum bid for the house will be $90,000.  The house will be constructed on a concrete foundation so it can be transported when it is completed. Buyers are responsible for transportation costs, which vary based on distance and route  . . .  .   a 20% down payment will need to be secured after the highest accepted bid is awarded  . .  ."
  • This announcement from Sampson County Schools, NC outlines that state's approach to Covid 19 mitigation for the coming school year.   Among the changes:  1) It is no longer recommended that schools require staff to report their vaccination status and participate in a screening program if they are unvaccinated  2) Masks are recommended at high CDC COVID-19 community levels  3) It is no longer recommended that schools implement physically distancing strategies 4) Universal contact tracing is not recommended  5) Testing, ventilation, and cleaning remain important layers of protection. 
  • Goose Creek Consolidated ISD, TX  conducted a "Reunification Exercise," a two-day event designed  to ensure efficient and accurate parent/guardian reunification with their students" after facility evacuations.

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