Week of 9/5: Forecasting Decline
Burbio's School Budget Tracker documents detailed K-12 spending, and as part of that initiative we see discussion of district enrollments. This week...
This week we look at topline FY23 school district budget changes, how school calendars are adjusting their first day of school, and other trends in K-12 districts.
This is Dennis from Burbio and below is our weekly update. Feel free to share.
1. As part of Burbio's ongoing project to document K-12 public school spending we have observed the large swings in revenues brought on by pandemic-related stimulus funding. In the chart below we illustrate annual budgeted revenues from large districts across seven states. To note:
- Two of the districts listed below, Fairfax County Public Schools, VA, and Harford County Public Schools, MD, booked their Federal stimulus ESSER funding in FY 22, the year in which the grants were received, even as spending of that revenue will also occur in future years. You will note the large FY 22 increase and ensuing drop in revenue in Fairfax for FY 23. Harford's revenue does still show an increase going to FY 23 even with the drop off in federal grant revenue.
- The other five districts are booking their stimulus revenue in both FY 22 and FY 23.
- We included percentage comparisons in spending for FY 22 and FY 23 well as FY 23 versus FY 21. Also note the columns with the last two years of reported enrollment.
Local school budget revenue sources vary widely by state and local district, but we thought this high level analysis provides a window into the scale of increases being seen in K-12 school district budgets.
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2. As part of Burbio's Calendar Insights service we measure school start dates, end dates, and holiday breaks to the district level. Below is a chart reviewing the shift in the first day of school for this coming school year. Just over one-fourth of districts have moved their first days by three days or more. Just over seven percent of districts have moved their first day by a week or more.
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Below is what it looks like in one example state, Oregon. Per the scale below, the red is where districts have moved their start date earlier this year and the green where they have moved it later.
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3. In news from around the U.S.:
- Oklahoma City Public Schools, OK will hold two "Back to School Bash" events this summer that will "provide no-cost medical, vision and dental screenings."
- McKinney ISD, TX will hold a "Feeding Friends and Families food distribution event" July 27th. "Current economic conditions have made it increasingly difficult for some families and individuals to obtain bare food essentials. Feeding Friends and Families is a low/no contact drive-thru community-wide event . . . . Each family will receive nuts, dried fruit, dairy and a box of shelf-stable items."
- Dawson Springs Independent Schools in Kentucky, where an open enrollment bill recently went into effect, issued a flyer promoting the strengths of the district, along with an invitation. "If you, your friends, or any of your family have school aged children, please share this important information with them. Enrollment is currently open with full day preschool down to age 3 and up to high school seniors...REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU LIVE! (caps theirs) We also have expanded transportation available to some areas slightly outside our borders. . . ."
- Cumberland County Schools, NC has paused the enforcement of uniform dress codes. "This pause is necessitated by supply chain and uniform availability issues that we have verified with major area retailers. Some stores said that it would likely be late September or October before they received sufficient inventory," reads the announcement. "Parents of children who attend uniform schools may continue to send their children to school in uniforms if they desire to do so and are able to locate them, but there will be no penalty imposed upon a student for a uniform violation during the 2022-2023 school year."
- We continue to note clear backpack regulations, which are widespread in Texas, in particular for middle and high school students, with Manor ISD, Dallas ISD, Santa Maria ISD, Sequin ISD, Del Valle ISD, and George West ISD. all requiring them. We also see it in Clayton County Schools, GA, and Griffin Spalding County School System, GA.
- Gila Crossing Community School, a small district in Arizona, is requiring a negative Covid 19 test no more than 5 days before school to return in-person.
- In Mountain Valley School District, CO the Superintendent reports the lifting of all Covid restrictions for the coming year. "In order to provide the least restrictive educational environment for our students, Mountain Valley School District currently has no Covid type restrictions, mandates or recommendations. Masks and social distancing practices are not required at this time . . . . . . . We will also not be collecting data on Covid vaccines for students or staff. . . . "