Burbio School Tracker 6/10: Managing Decline

1. With the combination of enrollment declines and the end of Federal stimulus spending impacting school districts in 2025-26, this week we take a look at school board discussions related to that issue. Figures below represent the percent of districts that mentioned the terms "declining enrollment(s) and/or "school consolidation(s)" at least once in the quarter.  We illustrate trends using year-over-year comparisons given the seasonal nature of policy discussions. We began our tracking in Q3 2023 so that is our first comparison period (in blue). Note that mentions increased to 7.5% in Q1 2025 from 5.2% in Q1 2024:

Burbio's AI-Powered Signals Tracker allows us to ask very specific questions about school board discussions and receive contextual responses. Using that tool, we highlight some examples of discussions related to declining enrollment and school consolidations from the last 8 weeks: 
 
Districts discussing implications of declining enrollment include:

• Kyrene Elementary School District, AZ, is in the early stages of discussion, talking about "the different strategic levers we can pull as we really start to delve into the work of what does the work of this committee look like moving forward around facility optimization. We are trying to build a plan to design the district that has 10,000 students when we were built for 20,000 students."
• Lakeland Joint School District, ID, in their recent meeting, discussed the "long range plan for facilities based on declining enrollment," which included threshold figures for school closures and how they would evaluate student/per school levels for each school in the district.
• Canyons School District, UT, discussed long range plans for schools in the face of declining enrollment. "The preferred elementary school size is . . . 425-567 students per school. The District currently has 10 schools under 375 students per school . . ."

Districts moving forward with school consolidations: 

• Santa Rosa City Schools, CA, facing a "fiscal crisis due to a significant decline in student enrollment and the expiration of temporary COVID relief funds" has convened a Fiscal and Site Closure Committee, in the face of a 17% enrollment decline over the last decade. The preliminary plan is to close three elementary, one middle and one high school, taking effect in 2025-26.
• Kettle Moraine School District, WI, is moving forward with a consolidation plan involving the closing of one elementary school. The district is facing a $7.6 million dollar deficit and a 25% enrollment decline over the 15 year period ending in 2032. 
• Douglas County School District, CO, completed a two year process to consolidate six elementary schools into three, while also adjusting school boundaries. 

2. In a recent Tracker we discussed the importance of the "sweet spot" for suppliers and the way the Signals Tracker provides highly contextual answers and scores them according to the phase of purchase consideration. This week we walk through how it works in one specific category, playground equipment, and give some examples of the continuum: 

• In the very earliest stages, Academy ISD, TX, has a new playground on a "wish list" presented at a recent board meeting. 
• In the planning stages, Waunakee Community School District, WI is reviewing the scope of outdoor facilities at a new middle school.
• In the purchase consideration stage,  Colchester School District, VT, has "begun researching playground options" as part of a facilities initiative.
• Panama-Buena Vista Union School District, CA, has approved the purchase of playground equipment for two elementary schools.
• Finally, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, NC, are finalizing the installation of playgrounds at two elementary schools. 

This technique can be used with any product category, no matter how granular. For playgrounds, similar to many infrastructure categories, discussions of a potential bond or new school construction offer an additional signal for potential purchase.
 
3. Burbio's State Level Funding Tracker features state-specific grants for PreK-12 schools, covering all state departments. This week we highlight the different categories of CTE grants. It is worth noting that CTE grants often come from state departments outside of the Department of Education:

• Pair districts with local employers: In Wisconsin, the Department of Workforce Development is offering the Technical Education Equipment Grant Program which is set up to "train high school students in advanced manufacturing or construction fields to help address Wisconsin's skilled worker shortage."
• Targeting specific industries and/or credentialing programs: In Washington, DC, Department of Employment Service offers the Youth Pathways to Finance and Healthcare Grants, providing internships in finance and healthcare as well as college visits to 16-18-year-olds who may not otherwise have access to such opportunities.
• Creation of CTE Programs:  in California the Middle School Foundation Academies Planning and Implementation Grant will fund 14 planning and 14 implementation grants for middle school career academies.
• Summer and Extended Day Programs:  In Texas, the 2024-2025 Summer Career and Technical Education Grant supports districts offering students greater access to CTE courses or paid or unpaid WBL summer opportunities.
• At-Risk Youth:  Massachusetts offers the YouthBuild Coalition Program to aid youth in turning lives around through career-training oriented curriculum.

Burbio has a growing database of over 1,800 grants, and clients are alerted when relevant grants are identified and reach out to districts to make them aware of the opportunity.