The analysis below draws on Burbio's K-12 Calendar Intelligence dataset, which tracks district calendar events and maps them to local geographies.
1. The chart below shows the percentage of students nationally returning to school by week for the 2026-27 school year. The largest week of the year is August 10th, with over 35% of students returning. Note that the prior week and each of the three following weeks have over ten percent of the student population returning, giving an indication of how much variation exists:
2. A key element of demand forecasting is comparing year-over-year changes in school schedules. For example, note that above just over five percent of students start school the week of Labor Day, September 7th, which is late by historical standards. The reason is that this Fall, Labor Day is September 7th, while Labor Day 2025 was September 1st. In Northeastern states, where schools start the latest, districts will either push back a full week or pull the start date up to start before Labor Day. Here are the changes we are seeing in that region, which will impact economic activity:
Click here to schedule a short demo to see how Burbio's comprehensive Calendar Intelligence dataset can inform your business decision-making.
3. Spring break vacations also widely vary. Districts are still finalizing Spring Break schedules for 2027, but a look at 2026 shows just how big changes can be. In the charts below we show the percent of K-12 school districts on vacation by week in the Spring of 2026 (blue) versus the previous Spring of 2025 (gray). Note that the highest percentage of districts were off in 2025 during the back half of April, while in 2026 the peak occurred in late March and early April. The reason is that many school districts schedule their break around Easter, which occurred on April 5th, 2026, versus April 19th, 2025:
The following chart shows the same dataset, broken out by day. This can be tied to zip codes for precise demand management:
4. For our final section, we return to fall back-to-school dates. The charts below illustrate just how much start dates can vary, even within a single state. Indiana is a good example: note the split between districts starting on August 3 and August 10. Even in a relatively small state, demand for back-to-school shopping, travel, childcare, tutoring, and other services can shift significantly from one community to the next.
Another example is Virginia. While just over 50% of students return to school during the week of August 24, more than 30% start across the weeks of August 10 and August 17. This staggered schedule extends the back-to-school season by several weeks and shifts the timing of demand for retail, travel, childcare, tutoring, and other services across the state.